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Reports

Who is Jim Shepherd?

Jim Shepherd is known for his independence, objectivity and integrity and by the fact that his predictions and advice are often at odds...
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The Great Bull Market 1982-2000

Throughout history bull markets have been born out of pain and adversity and truly climb a wall of worry until they're on a firm footing...
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The Psychology of the Markets

One of the most difficult things for most investors to understand is that in the investment markets, often the opposite of what you feel...
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Interviews

February 1st, 2013

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

May 22, 2012

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

September, 2009

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by George Brooks of Equities magazine for their September 2009 issue: "A Case for the Bear ... Contrarian Jim Shepherd doesn't buy the bull".
[Read more]

February 5, 2008

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

September 28, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 25, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 13, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

March 1, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

December 27, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

July 29, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

May 26, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

March 3, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060. In the interview Jim referred to this page.
[Play MP3]

February 18, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on Business America Radio.
[Play MP3]

October 3, 2003

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060.
[Play MP3]



Testimonials

Testimonials

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"Hard to find good advice."
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News Room

Below you'll find links to recent business and economic news articles that have the potential to impact the market and economy. They are selected from the hundreds of news items written every day, most of which do not reflect what is really important to the future direction of the economy and US stock market.
These items are posted on a random basis so it's worth visiting the site frequently to stay informed.


17-Oct-2014
3 Black eyes in the U.S. job market
14-Oct-2014
Think it's bad now? This chart explains why it could get a lot worse
14-Oct-2014
U.S. small business confidence declines in September: NFIB
13-Oct-2014
Stock Market Correction's Step 1 is Complete, Now to Step 2
12-Oct-2014
Dam breaks in Europe as deflation fears wash over ECB rhetoric
11-Oct-2014
Armageddon delayed
10-Oct-2014
Why it's about to get much, much worse for stocks
10-Oct-2014
Fed aim off target as inflation descends near danger zone
09-Oct-2014
Markets Open Lower on Wall Street
09-Oct-2014
Investors increasingly nervous markets have peaked
08-Oct-2014
A Stock Market on the edge. S&P500 flashes warning signal
07-Oct-2014
Home Prices Headed For a Triple Dip
07-Oct-2014
Five charts that show why the global economic recover is disappointing
03-Oct-2014
Whats the real unemployment rate?
02-Oct-2014
Factory orders plunge by 10% in August, reversing prior months surge
01-Oct-2014
Watching for Bubbles
01-Oct-2014
September U.S. Car Sales Show Industry's torrid pace slowing
01-Oct-2014
One Man shook a $42 trillion bond market last week
30-Sep-2014
Wait for one more bounce in stocks before a broad decline
30-Sep-2014
Mass default looms as world sinks beneath a sea of debt
30-Sep-2014
Consumer Confidence Hits the Skids
29-Sep-2014
Diverging market forces could be ingredients of a market crash
29-Sep-2014
Pending home sales fall 1 percent in August
29-Sep-2014
Global crisis may stem china


"Hard to find good advice."

K. Roberts (Walnut Creek, CA)
Apr 2001 paid thru Sept 2015

The Case for Treasury Bonds

During the week of October 25th 1999 Jim Shepherd advised his clients and the subscribers to his Newsletter to sell all stocks and use their funds to purchase Treasury Bonds. Here's why:

During the last week of October 1999, his model issued a very strong sell signal.

That sell signal was an indication that the end of the Great Bull Market was approaching, and that the economy would become much weaker in the months and years ahead. Further the elements of this signal indicated that the economy would become much weaker in the months and years ahead.

Here is the basis for his recommendation to own Long-Term Treasury Bonds:

  • His model was signaling that the economy would begin to weaken meaning that long-term interest rates would come down.

  • Falling long-term interest rates meant that Treasury Bonds would increase in value.

  • In October 1999 the yield on the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond was 6.47 %.

  • The current yield on the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond has fallen to around 4.87%.

  • The decline in long-term interest rates has resulted in an increase for our original bond purchases of over 79% (as of February 2007).

30 Year Bond Chart
Increase in value of U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds Oct 1999 to Feb 2007
  • There is the common misconception among many analysts and investment advisors - only because long-term interest rates are at four decade lows- that they have bottomed.

  • Jim believes that long-term interest rates must come down even farther in order for an economic recovery to begin.

  • Although the Federal Reserve has lowered short-term interest rates 17 times and has been pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the economy, there is no evidence that their efforts have been effective. In fact it appears that this liquidity has been thrown into the black hole of debt servicing and has had no effect on economic recovery as is evidenced by the declines in Monetary Trends.

SUMMARY OF PERIOD LEADING UP TO 'SELL' OF LATE OCTOBER 1999

There is a perception among most of the public that one should be in equities at all times. 'Investing', however, by definition means to be in the correct asset class for the best AND safest return (ROI). The Shepherd model clearly identifies in advance the necessary asset positioning just as it did by taking advantage of the huge run up in equities in the late 90's and then locking in those profits by exiting stocks and using those funds to buy the next profitable asset class - US Government 30-Year Treasury Bonds.