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Reports

Who is Jim Shepherd?

Jim Shepherd is known for his independence, objectivity and integrity and by the fact that his predictions and advice are often at odds...
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The Great Bull Market 1982-2000

Throughout history bull markets have been born out of pain and adversity and truly climb a wall of worry until they're on a firm footing...
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The Psychology of the Markets

One of the most difficult things for most investors to understand is that in the investment markets, often the opposite of what you feel...
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Interviews

February 1st, 2013

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

May 22, 2012

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

September, 2009

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by George Brooks of Equities magazine for their September 2009 issue: "A Case for the Bear ... Contrarian Jim Shepherd doesn't buy the bull".
[Read more]

February 5, 2008

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

September 28, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 25, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 13, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

March 1, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

December 27, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

July 29, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

May 26, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

March 3, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060. In the interview Jim referred to this page.
[Play MP3]

February 18, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on Business America Radio.
[Play MP3]

October 3, 2003

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060.
[Play MP3]



Testimonials

Testimonials

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"Thanks for all your excellent work, analysis, and reporting."
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Jan 2015

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Subscribed June 2005 to July 2016


News Room

Below you'll find links to recent business and economic news articles that have the potential to impact the market and economy. They are selected from the hundreds of news items written every day, most of which do not reflect what is really important to the future direction of the economy and US stock market.
These items are posted on a random basis so it's worth visiting the site frequently to stay informed.


01-May-2015
A Bullish Argument for Stocks Turns Out To Be Wrong
30-Apr-2015
Economic Policy is Turned Inside Out
28-Apr-2015
America's Biggest Banks Aren't Ready for Next Meltdown
27-Apr-2015
How This Debt Addicted World Could Go the Way of the Mayans
22-Apr-2015
China Has a Massive Dept Problem
22-Apr-2015
Bill Gross's 'Short of a Lifetime' Would Mean Armageddon
22-Apr-2015
Mystery of China's Gold Stash May Soon Be Solved as IMF Beckons
21-Apr-2015
The Currency Wars Have Begun
15-Apr-2015
4 ways deflation will change the markets
15-Apr-2015
IMF finds growing risks to financial security
14-Apr-2015
The next recession could lead to a viscious spiral of debt-inflation
14-Apr-2015
Small business optimism slumps to nine-month low: NFIB
14-Apr-2015
Bubble fears just hit their highest level on record
10-Apr-2015
US import prices fell 0.3% in March
09-Apr-2015
Exhausted world stuck in permanent stagnation warns IMF
08-Apr-2015
U.S. stocks struggle against these four headwinds
02-Apr-2015
The Atlanta Fed just wiped out its US growth forecast for the first quarter
01-Apr-2015
ISM manufacturing expansion slows down in March
31-Mar-2015
There are big structural forces keeping inflation low
25-Mar-2015
Businesses cutting investment as durable-goods orders slide
25-Mar-2015
Here's the backstory on the big bounce in new home sales
19-Mar-2015
Falling liquidity in bond markets raise risk of severe disruptions in financial markets
18-Mar-2015
This is just like 1937 and the Fed could drive us into a new recession
13-Mar-2015
The surging dollar is a signal that a colossal financial event is just around the corner


Thank you!!

M Parmley (CA)
Subscribed June 2005 to July 2016

The Case for Treasury Bonds

During the week of October 25th 1999 Jim Shepherd advised his clients and the subscribers to his Newsletter to sell all stocks and use their funds to purchase Treasury Bonds. Here's why:

During the last week of October 1999, his model issued a very strong sell signal.

That sell signal was an indication that the end of the Great Bull Market was approaching, and that the economy would become much weaker in the months and years ahead. Further the elements of this signal indicated that the economy would become much weaker in the months and years ahead.

Here is the basis for his recommendation to own Long-Term Treasury Bonds:

  • His model was signaling that the economy would begin to weaken meaning that long-term interest rates would come down.

  • Falling long-term interest rates meant that Treasury Bonds would increase in value.

  • In October 1999 the yield on the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond was 6.47 %.

  • The current yield on the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond has fallen to around 4.87%.

  • The decline in long-term interest rates has resulted in an increase for our original bond purchases of over 79% (as of February 2007).

30 Year Bond Chart
Increase in value of U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds Oct 1999 to Feb 2007
  • There is the common misconception among many analysts and investment advisors - only because long-term interest rates are at four decade lows- that they have bottomed.

  • Jim believes that long-term interest rates must come down even farther in order for an economic recovery to begin.

  • Although the Federal Reserve has lowered short-term interest rates 17 times and has been pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the economy, there is no evidence that their efforts have been effective. In fact it appears that this liquidity has been thrown into the black hole of debt servicing and has had no effect on economic recovery as is evidenced by the declines in Monetary Trends.

SUMMARY OF PERIOD LEADING UP TO 'SELL' OF LATE OCTOBER 1999

There is a perception among most of the public that one should be in equities at all times. 'Investing', however, by definition means to be in the correct asset class for the best AND safest return (ROI). The Shepherd model clearly identifies in advance the necessary asset positioning just as it did by taking advantage of the huge run up in equities in the late 90's and then locking in those profits by exiting stocks and using those funds to buy the next profitable asset class - US Government 30-Year Treasury Bonds.