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Reports

Who is Jim Shepherd?

Jim Shepherd is known for his independence, objectivity and integrity and by the fact that his predictions and advice are often at odds...
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The Great Bull Market 1982-2000

Throughout history bull markets have been born out of pain and adversity and truly climb a wall of worry until they're on a firm footing...
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The Psychology of the Markets

One of the most difficult things for most investors to understand is that in the investment markets, often the opposite of what you feel...
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Interviews

February 1st, 2013

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

May 22, 2012

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

September, 2009

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by George Brooks of Equities magazine for their September 2009 issue: "A Case for the Bear ... Contrarian Jim Shepherd doesn't buy the bull".
[Read more]

February 5, 2008

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

September 28, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 25, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 13, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

March 1, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

December 27, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

July 29, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

May 26, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

March 3, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060. In the interview Jim referred to this page.
[Play MP3]

February 18, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on Business America Radio.
[Play MP3]

October 3, 2003

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060.
[Play MP3]



Testimonials

Testimonials

Click on the link to read the complete subscriber comment.

"There's truly nothing else like it in the world!"
Andre N. (NC)
Apr 1998 paid thru May 2015

"Intelligent and honest."
Adrienne Klug (NJ)
Apr 2001 paid thru Apr 2015

"Not another talking head."
Scott Hall (MD)
Nov 2001 paid thru Feb 2015

"Your Report On Gold IS Right On!"
Raphael .V. (IN)
June 2005 paid thru Oct 2014

"Stay Up-To-Date With Proven Signals."
S. Schatz (MA)
Oct 1998 paid thru Oct 2014

"Hard to find good advice."
K. Roberts (Walnut Creek, CA)
Apr 2001 paid thru Sept 2015

"By far the best."
A.C. (Potomac, MD)
Jun 2005 paid thru Jun 2015

"As a long time subscriber to your publication, I wanted to take a moment to say how refreshing it is to receive your material."
Vince Russo (Alexandria, VA)
Subscribed Feb 2005 Paid thru Feb 2015

"You give us subscribers a calming effect to the anxious financial times that we live"
Theodore Priban (Cicero, IL)
Subscribed Apr 2005, paid thru March 2015

"Thanks for all your excellent work, analysis, and reporting."
Bill Treadwell (Ft Myers, FL)
Subscribed Oct 2005, Paid thru Dec 2014

It has saved me a lot
Geert Debakker, Belguim (geert.debakker@shynet.be)
Subscribed June, 2000, paid thru July, 2015

Not Another Talking Head
Scott Hall (MD)
Subscribed Nov. 2001, paid thru Feb, 2015

Able To Grow And Preserve My Capital
Venky Patrachari (NJ)
Jan. 2005 paid thru Mar. 2015

I greatly appreciate the statistical, fact-based, unemotional way Mr. Shepherd proceeds.
Ronald Hebard (WA)
Jan 2015

Great Newsletter And Telephone Updates
Theodore Priban (IL)
April, 2005 paid thru Mar. 2015

Thank you!!
M Parmley (CA)
Subscribed June 2005 to July 2016


News Room

Below you'll find links to recent business and economic news articles that have the potential to impact the market and economy. They are selected from the hundreds of news items written every day, most of which do not reflect what is really important to the future direction of the economy and US stock market.
These items are posted on a random basis so it's worth visiting the site frequently to stay informed.


New
China's Boom has World Bank Worried
New
The next financial crisis is on its way, experts warn
29-Jun-2015
Will Greece spark a delayed stock market crash?
26-Jun-2015
Recession time bomb ticking faster, louder
25-Jun-2015
Icahn warns market is 'extremely overheated'
23-Jun-2015
China Margin Trades Buckle Leaving $364 Billion at Risk
17-Jun-2015
The China Bubble Is Going to Burst
16-Jun-2015
Stocks fall globally as Greek talks collapse
16-Jun-2015
Judge Adds The Fed To List Of Financial-Crisis Lawbreakers In AIG Ruling
15-Jun-2015
Junk-Bond Defaults Growing as Pressure From Commodities Persists
12-Jun-2015
Biotech Led by 29-Year-Old CEO Now Worth Billions With No Sales
10-Jun-2015
Tech startups woo investors with unconventional financial terms = but do numbers add up?
10-Jun-2015
Get ready for a 4,000 point Dow drop
09-Jun-2015
The $6.5 Trillion China Rally Thats Making Stock-Market History
09-Jun-2015
Justice Department probes banks for rigging Treasury market
05-Jun-2015
Goldman Said to Near U.S. Settlement Exceeding $2 Billion
04-Jun-2015
2 charts show the markets could be heading for a big correction
02-Jun-2015
Dr. Doom: This 'time bomb' will trigger next financial collapse
02-Jun-2015
Bernanke still blind to market bubbles
01-Jun-2015
Feds Fischer: Don't believe financial crises at end
01-Jun-2015
What Is Around the Corner Is a Flaming Meltdown of the Feds Third Financial Bubble
29-May-2015
The Fed basically put $3 trillion into the stock market
28-May-2015
Why the Stock Market Will Crash in Two Charts
27-May-2015
Deutsche Bank shows us the financial crisis was even worse than we thought


Great Newsletter And Telephone Updates

Theodore Priban (IL)
April, 2005 paid thru Mar. 2015

The Case for Treasury Bonds

During the week of October 25th 1999 Jim Shepherd advised his clients and the subscribers to his Newsletter to sell all stocks and use their funds to purchase Treasury Bonds. Here's why:

During the last week of October 1999, his model issued a very strong sell signal.

That sell signal was an indication that the end of the Great Bull Market was approaching, and that the economy would become much weaker in the months and years ahead. Further the elements of this signal indicated that the economy would become much weaker in the months and years ahead.

Here is the basis for his recommendation to own Long-Term Treasury Bonds:

  • His model was signaling that the economy would begin to weaken meaning that long-term interest rates would come down.

  • Falling long-term interest rates meant that Treasury Bonds would increase in value.

  • In October 1999 the yield on the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond was 6.47 %.

  • The current yield on the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond has fallen to around 4.87%.

  • The decline in long-term interest rates has resulted in an increase for our original bond purchases of over 79% (as of February 2007).

30 Year Bond Chart
Increase in value of U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds Oct 1999 to Feb 2007
  • There is the common misconception among many analysts and investment advisors - only because long-term interest rates are at four decade lows- that they have bottomed.

  • Jim believes that long-term interest rates must come down even farther in order for an economic recovery to begin.

  • Although the Federal Reserve has lowered short-term interest rates 17 times and has been pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the economy, there is no evidence that their efforts have been effective. In fact it appears that this liquidity has been thrown into the black hole of debt servicing and has had no effect on economic recovery as is evidenced by the declines in Monetary Trends.

SUMMARY OF PERIOD LEADING UP TO 'SELL' OF LATE OCTOBER 1999

There is a perception among most of the public that one should be in equities at all times. 'Investing', however, by definition means to be in the correct asset class for the best AND safest return (ROI). The Shepherd model clearly identifies in advance the necessary asset positioning just as it did by taking advantage of the huge run up in equities in the late 90's and then locking in those profits by exiting stocks and using those funds to buy the next profitable asset class - US Government 30-Year Treasury Bonds.