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Reports

Who is Jim Shepherd?

Jim Shepherd is known for his independence, objectivity and integrity and by the fact that his predictions and advice are often at odds...
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The Great Bull Market 1982-2000

Throughout history bull markets have been born out of pain and adversity and truly climb a wall of worry until they're on a firm footing...
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The Psychology of the Markets

One of the most difficult things for most investors to understand is that in the investment markets, often the opposite of what you feel...
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Interviews

February 1st, 2013

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

May 22, 2012

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe of MARKETWATCH on his 'Money Life Show'. To listen to the interview, CLICK HERE.

September, 2009

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by George Brooks of Equities magazine for their September 2009 issue: "A Case for the Bear ... Contrarian Jim Shepherd doesn't buy the bull".
[Read more]

February 5, 2008

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

September 28, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 25, 2007

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on his 'Your Money' show On WBIX The Business Station AM1060.
[Play MP3]

June 13, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

March 1, 2005

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on BizRadio 1320.
[Play MP3]

December 27, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

July 29, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

May 26, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Victor Adair CKNW Money Talks.
[Play MP3]

March 3, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060. In the interview Jim referred to this page.
[Play MP3]

February 18, 2004

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Mike Norman on Business America Radio.
[Play MP3]

October 3, 2003

Jim Shepherd was interviewed by Chuck Jaffe on Business 1060.
[Play MP3]



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News Room

Below you'll find links to recent business and economic news articles that have the potential to impact the market and economy. They are selected from the hundreds of news items written every day, most of which do not reflect what is really important to the future direction of the economy and US stock market.
These items are posted on a random basis so it's worth visiting the site frequently to stay informed.


New
Markets Are Calmer, but Worrying Signs Remain
New
Specter of no-inflation world looms over Fed's return to normal
23-Oct-2014
The World's 2nd Biggest Retailer is Getting Hammered
23-Oct-2014
Sears to Close stores, lay off about 5,500 employees:
17-Oct-2014
3 Black eyes in the U.S. job market
14-Oct-2014
Think it's bad now? This chart explains why it could get a lot worse
14-Oct-2014
U.S. small business confidence declines in September: NFIB
13-Oct-2014
Stock Market Correction's Step 1 is Complete, Now to Step 2
12-Oct-2014
Dam breaks in Europe as deflation fears wash over ECB rhetoric
11-Oct-2014
Armageddon delayed
10-Oct-2014
Why it's about to get much, much worse for stocks
10-Oct-2014
Fed aim off target as inflation descends near danger zone
09-Oct-2014
Markets Open Lower on Wall Street
09-Oct-2014
Investors increasingly nervous markets have peaked
08-Oct-2014
A Stock Market on the edge. S&P500 flashes warning signal
07-Oct-2014
Home Prices Headed For a Triple Dip
07-Oct-2014
Five charts that show why the global economic recover is disappointing
03-Oct-2014
Whats the real unemployment rate?
02-Oct-2014
Factory orders plunge by 10% in August, reversing prior months surge
01-Oct-2014
Watching for Bubbles
01-Oct-2014
September U.S. Car Sales Show Industry's torrid pace slowing
01-Oct-2014
One Man shook a $42 trillion bond market last week
30-Sep-2014
Wait for one more bounce in stocks before a broad decline
30-Sep-2014
Mass default looms as world sinks beneath a sea of debt


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Geert Debakker, Belguim (geert.debakker@shynet.be)
Subscribed June, 2000, paid thru July, 2015

The Great Bull Market 1982-2000

Wall of worry

Throughout history bull markets have been born out of pain and adversity and truly climb a wall of worry until they're on a firm footing. At the end of WWII, soldiers returned from the battlefields of Europe and Asia. They married and started families and then bought millions of new homes, TV sets and automobiles. This set the stage for the recovery of an economy that had suffered through the Great Depression and another world war. The newfound prosperity persevered through the 40s, 50s and 60s and eventually the economy became so hot that inflation got completely out of control in part because of immense spending on the Vietnam War. Rampant inflation became the order of the day during the 1970s when many saw the value of their homes grow by more than their annual salary.

Rampant-Inflation

But this newfound prosperity was not enjoyed by the stock market because inflation is one of its mortal enemies. The stock market suffered through a long two-year bear market in 1973-1974 that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average slump to 777, coming within 50 points of its old 1961 high. Very high levels of inflation continued throughout the1970s until the Federal Reserve aggressively increased interest rates to beat it into submission. The move succeeded in bringing inflation to its knees but unfortunately the economy was a victim also. A debt crisis ensued and millions of unemployed baby boomers were the collateral damage.

It took until 1982 before a new economic recovery was born. Slowly investors who had previously sworn off stocks forever returned to the stock market and by mid-1982 the longest running bull market in history was born. By August 12th 1983 the Dow had climbed to over 1200 and was on its way to an ultimate high that was almost 11,000 points from where it had started. In 1984 Real Economic growth was an amazing 7.4%.

An investment scenario never to be repeated

From 1982 until 2000 the stock market went through a combination of investment scenarios in an unrelenting upward journey that is unlikely to ever be repeated, certainly in our lifetime.

As interest rates fell, investors continued to refinance and re-mortgage at lower and lower rates. Instead of saving or lowering their debt, they increased debt by buying larger homes, extra vehicles, vacation properties and by throwing money at the stock market with no concern as long as the bull was alive. In the mid 1990s two elements of the greatest investment bubble in history were falling into place as investors discovered internet stocks and Wall Street convinced them that valuations of companies like Amazon.com, Nortel Networks, and Lucent, no longer mattered in the new economy.

In 1998 two of the final investment gifts were handed to Americans when the Asian economies collapsed. This led to a massive flight-to-quality flow of foreign funds into our already overvalued equity markets and allowed us to keep spending our new found wealth on cheaper foreign imported products and even more stocks.

A new bear arrives

However, the beginning of the new millennium brought an end to the longest running bull market in modern history. A new bear market arrived and the economy went into recession. Now the world edges closer to a deflationary economic spiral. Illiquid companies are collapsing, forcing workers into unemployment lines with little hope of finding new jobs. Those without savings will be forced to sell assets into falling markets that will further depress prices, and so the spiral will continue. They'll sell stocks, vacation property, and extra vehicles and eventually start visiting neighborhood pawnshops as they struggle to make minimum payments on credit cards.

This new bear market will play itself out at some time in the future and in the process investors may again swear off stocks forever. But like all other bear markets it will eventually yield to renewed economic activity and confidence will return to owning stocks again and another bull market will be born.

The timing for this turnaround will be imperative to know as this will present extraordinary profit potential. However, knowing when the real bottom is in will be crucial to the safety of your portfolio as no doubt the information flowing from the media and brokerage houses will again present confusing and conflicting information.

Subscribers to this service will receive clear guidelines as to when to re-enter the market so as to avoid the many bear market traps will be presented along the way.